Friday, October 29, 2010

Quaker Valley Enrollment: Past, Present, and Future

PAST
When Quaker Valley converted its junior high (grades 7-9) to a middle school, the school district enrollment was 1,808. At the beginning of the current 2010-11 school year, our enrollment was 2,008. This is an increase, K-12, of exactly 200 students. Enrollment during the coming years shows a steady, moderate increase as well.

Below is a chart depicting a 15-year enrollment history of Quaker Valley School District.

PRESENT
Enrollment for the 2010-11 school year is 2,008. Enrollment for the past two school years is the highest in the school district since 1982! Current enrollment of Quaker Valley Middle School is 492 students. This is the highest enrollment in Quaker Valley Middle School/Junior High School since 1984!

FUTURE
The school district makes it a practice to analyze enrollment trends and projections. This is a very important task for planning purposes.

The Pennsylvania Department of Education annually provides enrollment projections to public school districts. Historically, these projections do not accurately portray the actual student enrollment of The Quaker Valley School District. For instance, the table below depicts the significant differences between projected and actual enrollments for the past two years.


Because the Pennsylvania Department of Education projections are not accurate projections, the district routinely employs its own demographer to study enrollment at a much more detailed level. Below are the most recent statistics for middle school enrollment projections for the next four school years. A more detailed study will be conducted in the near future to provide projections through 2020. It is important to note the obvious here ~ projections for 2016 and beyond are not based on live births in the region because those children have not yet been born. As a result, accuracy of those projections will always be suspect.

Projected Enrollments


Keep in mind that these are projected numbers. Historically, enrollment in the school district has exceeded these projected numbers. There is a very unique pattern of enrollment growth at Quaker Valley School District. Over a period of years, each class grows significantly from the time students enter kindergarten.

Closer study of this growth clearly shows that parents are choosing to move to the district based on their perception related to the quality educational program that is provided by Quaker Valley School District. This has been a clear trend for the past decade.

The chart below clearly demonstrates this growth phenomenon. For instance, the Class of 2012 has grown by 66 students ~ an astounding 60% growth in enrollment since they entered kindergarten. This phenomenon always makes enrollment projections precarious and, quite frankly, remarkably unpredictable.


SUMMARY

Quaker Valley School District student enrollment has increased significantly during the past decade. This increase has caused our school buildings to become crowded. The elementary schools were impacted initially, and the renovations of those buildings helped to ease the overcrowded situation. However, the middle school is clearly over capacity and there is a genuine need to increase the number of classrooms within the middle school facility.

The plan to increase the number of classrooms includes building some additional space to the facility such as an auditorium. The current auditorium seats approximately 470 students. That current auditorium space will be converted to classrooms for art, music, technology, family consumer science, as well as general classrooms.

It is necessary to build an auditorium that will seat the full student body (projected to exceed 500 students) and, of course, seating for the faculty and staff (approximately 40 employees) for the purposes of student supervision during any school-wide program.

Of course, the middle school will also host programs such as middle school concerts, drama productions, fairs, and much more.  All too often there has not been adequate auditorium seating for these events for parents, relatives, and community members.

Enrollment increase and additional educational program during the past decade have made this renovation project necessary. In addition, there are numerous infrastructure issues that must be remedied.